Department Chair (August 1, 2019), Professor
My research focusses on national level politics in the United States -- political parties in Congress, the presidency, and elections. I have written about the strategic decisions political parties must make to balance electoral and legislative goals. I also study research methodology and time series analysis including micro-targeting and election forecasting. Additional interests are in British politics and Scottish independence.
Current Research Projects
I am currently working on projects on redistricting in the United States and several papers on time series methodology in the social sciences.
- 2017: Gregory Koger and Matthew Lebo. Strategic Party Government: Why Winning Trumps Ideology. University of Chicago Press.
Refereed Journal Articles
- Forthcoming. Clayton Webb, Suzanna Linn, and Matthew Lebo. “Beyond the Unit Root Question: Drawing Inferences about Long Run Relationships Given Uncertain Univariate Dynamics.” American Journal of Political Science.
- 2019: Donovan, Kathleen, Ellen M. Key, Paul M. Kellstedt, and Matthew Lebo. “Motivated Reasoning, Public Opinion, and Presidential Approval.” Political Behavior.
- 2019: Clayton Webb, Suzanna Linn, and Matthew Lebo. “A Bounds Approach to Inference using the Long Run Multiplier.” Political Analysis.
- 2017: Matthew Lebo and Patrick Kraft. “The General Error Correction Model in Practice.” Research and Politics.
2016: Matthew Lebo. “Managing Your Research Pipeline.” PS: Political Science and Politics.
- 2016: Matthew Lebo and Taylor Grant. “Equation Balance and Dynamic Political Modeling.” Political Analysis 24(1).
- 2016: Taylor Grant and Matthew Lebo. “Error Correction Methods with Political Time Series.” Political Analysis 24(1).
- 2016: Matthew Lebo and Helmut Norpoth. “Victory without Power: the PM-Pendulum Model and a 2015 British Election Forecast.” Electoral Studies 41.
- 2015: Matthew Lebo and Chris Weber. “An Effective Approach to the Rolling Cross Sectional Design.” American Journal of Political Science 59(1).
- 2012: Matthew Lebo and Helmut Norpoth. “Forecasting British Elections: The ‘PM and the Pendulum’ Model Reconsidered.” Journal of Elections, Public Opinion, and Parties 23(1).