Blair Welsh

Assistant Professor

Evelyne Brie

PhD, University of Essex
Telephone: 519-661-2111 X 81459
E-mail: blair.welsh@uwo.ca 
Office: SSC 7243
Website: www.blairwelsh.com

Research Interests

Professor Blair Welsh is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Western Ontario. His research investigates the politics of armed violence and development across three major themes: 1) causes and consequences of armed violence; 2) conflict and displacement; and 3) post-conflict recovery.

Professor Welsh’s research is published or forthcoming in International Organization, International Studies Quarterly (x2), Journal of Peace Research, Journal of Global Security Studies, Conflict Management and Peace Science, and the Oxford Research Encyclopedia of International Studies. The regional focus of his research is sub-Saharan Africa. He has conducted research in Ghana, Nigeria, Somalia, and South Sudan, among other places. His methodological portfolio includes survey and field experiments, spatial econometrics, machine learning, and strategies for causal inference.

Prior to joining Western, Professor Welsh was a Postdoctoral Associate at New York University — Abu Dhabi. He received his Ph.D. from the Department of Government at the University of Essex in 2023. He has held fellowships at the Governance and Local Development Institute, University of Gothenburg; the School of Government and Public Policy, University of Arizona; the Centre for International Studies (CÉRIUM), University of Montréal; the Centre for International Peace and Security Studies (CEPSI), McGill University and the University of Montréal; and the Human Rights Centre, University of Essex.

Professor Welsh’s research is supported by funding and provisions from the Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab (J-PAL), the Centre for International Peace and Security Studies at McGill University and University of Montréal, the Economic and Social Research Council, the IKEA Foundation, Innovations for Poverty Action (IPA), the Institute for Humane Studies at George Mason University, Mitacs Canada, the Montréal Centre for International Studies, the South East Network of Social Scientists, and University College London. It includes collaborations with the Ministry of Justice in Somalia, the United Nations Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM), the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the United Nations International Organization for Migration (IOM), the United Nations Department of Peace Operations, and UN Women.

Professor Welsh has also worked as an Analyst and Researcher for Action on Armed Violence (AOAV), AKE International, the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED), E-International Relations (E-IR), Global Risk Insights, and the House of Commons (UK Parliament), and served as an advisor to The United Nations and the Office of the Prosecutor at the International Criminal Court.

Selected Publications 

Peer-Reviewed Publications

  • Welsh, B., 2025. Talking bodies: Hostage concessions in civil war. Conflict Management and Peace Science, 0(0). https://doi.org/10.1177/07388942251317428.
  • Polo, S.M.T. and Welsh, B., 2024. Violent competition and terrorist restraint. International Organization, 78(3), pp.397–426.
  • Welsh, B., 2024. Taking to kill: The lethality of hostage-taking in civil war. Journal of Global Security Studies, 9(2), ogae014.
  • Welsh, B., 2024. Taking civilians: Terrorist kidnapping in civil war. International Studies Quarterly, 68(2), sqae074.
  • Welsh, B., 2023. Your space or mine? Competition, control, and the spatial profile of militant violence against civilians. Journal of Peace Research, 60(4), pp.557–572.
  • Polo, S.M.T. and Welsh, B., 2022. Terrorism and counterterrorism datasets: An overview. Oxford Research Encyclopedia of International Studies, 21 December.
  • Faulkner, C.M. and Welsh, B., 2022. Rebel child soldiering and conflict-related sexual violence. International Studies Quarterly, 66(4), sqac073.

Working Papers

  • The Reintegration of Female and Child Ex-Combatants: Evidence from Somalia (with Prabin Khadka).
  • The Awareness, Politicization, and Prioritization of Climate Change in Displaced Communities: Evidence from Somalia (with Nicholas Haas & Prabin Khadka).
  • Rebel Governance and Post-Conflict Recovery (with Natalie Ayers, Nihad Aboud, & Laura Saavedra-Lux).
  • Preferences over Restorative and Retributive Justice Under Legal Pluralism: Experimental Evidence from Somalia (with Nicholas Haas & Prabin Khadka).
  • Emigration Preferences of the Internally Displaced: Experimental Evidence from South Central Somalia (with Nicholas Haas & Prabin Khadka).
  • Repatriation and Reconciliation in Comparison: Former ISIS Collaborators in the Middle East and North Africa (with Mirna El Masri & Maiyoraa Jeyabraba).

Book Chapters

  • Welsh, B. and Faulkner, Christopher M. (2025). The gendered composition of child soldiers and conflict-related sexual violence. In: J. Joachim, A. Kronsell and N. Dalmer, eds. Handbook on Gender and Security: Persistent and New Security Issues. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing.

Selected Awards, Extramural Grants, and Distinctions

  • Innovations for Poverty Action and the Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab, Displaced Livelihoods Initiative, 2024–2026, co-PI with Prabin B. Khadka and Nicholas Haas, $75,000.
  • Innovations for Poverty Action and the Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab, Displaced Livelihoods Initiative, 2024–2025, co-PI with Laura Saavedra-Lux, $10,000.
  • Travel Grant, International Studies Association, 2024–2025, $900.
  • Governance and Development Institute, University of Gothenburg, 2023–2024, PI, $3,000.
  • Institute for Humane Studies, George Mason University, 2023, PI, $1,000.
  • Mitacs, Globalink Research Grant, 2023, PI, $6,000.
  • Centre for International Studies, University of Montréal, Doctoral Writing Fellowship Grant, 2023, PI, $1,500.
  • Centre for International Peace and Security, University of Montréal, Writing Fellowship Grant, 2023, PI, $1,500.
  • Stuart A. Bremer Award, Network of European Peace Scientists, 2022, $1,500.
  • Service Recognition Award, International Studies Association, 2022.
  • Connect Education Mentorship Grant, University College London, 2022–2023, PI, $5,000.
  • Economic and Social Research Council, Overseas Institutional Visit Grant, 2022–2023, $5,000.
  • Travel Grant, International Studies Association, 2022–2023, $750.
  • Travel Grant, International Studies Association, 2021–2022, $500.
  • SAGE Publishing Methods Training Grant, 2020–2021, $1,000.
  • Eric Tanenbaum Prize for Best Postgraduate Student, University of Essex, 2020, $100.